Mortgage Rates

At Wednesday's meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions. The prior week's GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is…

Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve.  This was punctuated by Jerome Powell, as he discussed at length the Federal Reserve has yet to feel inflation is under control. This has dispelled all notion there will…

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing higher than expected inflation, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing lower than expected inflation. The two are in conflict with each other; however, the Consumer Price Index is still the far greater indicator for inflation as it directly impacts the cost of living for everyone, not just production assets.  Given the Federal Reserve’s recent speeches it would seem that there is very likely to be a delay in the rate cuts this upcoming quarter. They have stated numerous times they are driven largely by data and that data has proven that…

With the upcoming CPI and PPI reports this week, last week still had a number of important data points to consider. First, the non-farm payroll data, helping reveal the situation of pay versus inflation data giving an overall description of the state of the economy in the future.  Among that, the manufacturing data has shown to be contracting the past year, with the first signs of relief this month. Lastly, trade data has shown that the trade deficit has grown bigger than expected with Q1 coming to completion.  All of these are broader indicators of the state of the economy…

As expected from the prior inflation reports with CPI and PPI, the PCE index had also shown the same corollary among its data points, reporting a higher than expected increase for the month of February across all products. In addition, the Chicago PMI had shown a declining trend of activity among businesses for the 6th week in a row. All this points to that there might be a case for the Federal Reserve to continue holding rates in the next rate decision coming up in the summer of 2024. There has been much speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin…

While it’s not a set deal, the Federal Reserve does appear to be on track for a June rate cut, and following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% until then.  Additionally, the government has also avoided another shut down as a series of rushed bills had approved spending for the government by another 1.2 trillion dollars. This is good news for lending markets as the debt ceiling has previously tied up rate decisions in the past. FOMC Rate Decision Federal…

Last week’s inflation data came in at a higher rate than expected, with Price Producer Index (PPI) numbers showing more than double the expected inflation gain.With both CPI and PPI being over the target, the steadfast certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates has now taken a step back, resulting in more tamed expectations for the near future. With a mixed response from lending partners, this may end up rapidly changing in the next round of discussions with the Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell this coming week, as well as a final rate decision. Consumer Price Index Consumer prices…

With a focus on the upcoming inflation data reports with CPI and PPI this week, the previous week was very light on data. The only relevant reports released were the non-farm payroll and U.S. trade balance data releases. Job reports are showing robust hiring numbers and the trade balance remains within expectations. There appears to be to not much to fear coming from this next round of inflation data. Lending partners are reflecting this sentiment as they continue to cut rates. Non-farm Payrolls The economy created a greater-than-expected 275,000 new jobs in February, in a seemingly bullish display that could complicate…