Mortgage Rates

A welcome and unexpected data release for both the PPI and CPI shows inflation expectations coming in lower than expected. The positive news was somewhat mitigated by the hawkish FOMC rate decision that also took place during the same week. Still, there is more optimism given that the data releases in the past 30 days have shown signs of inflation coming under control. At the very least, it suggests that the Federal Reserve's policy to keep inflation under control has been effective. As a result, lending partners have quickly cut rates again after the meeting this week. Consumer Price Index…

With the CPI and PPI reports coming up this week, the previous week was light on reports of any significance. Most notable was the Non-Farm Payrolls which can have an outsized impact on inflation data reporting, as it’s a useful barometer to compare the cost of goods to the payroll of the average consumer. Following that is the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in slightly under expectations. Lastly, the JOLTS Job Openings is a minor indicator, but useful for seeing the state of the job market. Non-Farm Payrolls Wages are growing by about 4%. The Federal Reserve wants to see…

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data, the PCE Index, was the highlight of this week. These were followed up loosely by trade balance, retail inventories, and GDP — all of which are strong secondary indicators for current inflation. For lending partners and those affiliated with broader markets, inflation is the key determining factor for rate adjustments, and other data at this point has a nominal impact in comparison. It does appear the Federal Reserve wants to have a strong hand towards inflation and will be careful about cutting rates even this year.  The broader market is holding such expectations as…

The Consumer Sentiment Report was the sole important report to take place the prior week, keeping with the trend of the cooling-off period that happens the weeks following the CPI and PPI data releases. Consumer sentiment this time around has come to be slightly below expectations and falling to a 6-month low, marking a great change in overall sentiment towards the clear trend in rising costs in goods and services. It is largely expected that the Federal Reserve, even with the recent improvement in data, will maintain its stance at holding rates at the current position until a later date…

The prior week showed a surprising display of inflation,  in that for consumers, it was less than expected. This is giving way to some optimism that inflation is on the right track to being under control. On the other end of the spectrum, for producers, inflation had shown to be slightly higher than expected. But the far higher impact of the two reports is the Consumer Price Index.  The Federal Reserve had still stuck to their stance as from the last FOMC opting to withhold any rate reduction decisions until late in the year, but the data coming in largely…

An extremely light week following the FOMC, with the only note-worthy reporting being the Consumer Sentiment reports from the University of Michigan, which gives a long term outlook of the consumer on the economy. The report has come in well under expectations, much more so than any previous release in the last 6 months. This is largely due to the increase in the cost of living for every sector. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.4 in a preliminary May reading, down from 77.2 in the prior month. Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index 15-Yr…

Week in Review With the passing of the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision panel, we now have definitively confirmed that the Federal Reserve intends to keep the rates at a two-decade high, for the sixth straight meeting by a unanimous vote. Jerome Powell had stated during the Q&A that they do not intend to cut rates until they have confidence that inflation will, “sustainably stay lower than the 2% objective.” Lending partners have responded in kind by a rush in an increase of rates the last three weeks in a row, with expectations tempered about impending rate cuts any…