Financial Reports

With the FOMC Minutes coming precisely within expectations, there is once again a lot of optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year. Much of the Q2 data reports show favorable amounts of reduction in inflation as well as a more stable economic outlook for the rest of the year. With the larger reports in PMI Manufacturing numbers and Non-farm Payroll figures, the overall outlook seems to align with the rest of the data points, justifying the more recent optimism about potential rate cuts. This week should give the final results on Q2 inflation results with the new…

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs. Consumer Confidence Report Consumers were slightly more optimistic about the economy at the end of June, but the effects of high inflation in the past few years still weighed on their minds. The final reading of the consumer sentiment…

Currently, the Retail Sales Report is the sole report that has weight. With the passage of more optimistic inflation data reports, retail sales coming in slightly under expectations will have little to no bearing on the overall outlook. Given the last major reports indicating the economy's health and state of inflation, there is more optimism toward a potential rate cut this year. Lending partners have still been quick to continue cutting rates. Consumer Price Index Sales at U.S. retailers barely rose in May, suggesting Americans are feeling the weight of lingering inflation and high interest rates. Sales edged up 0.1%…

A welcome and unexpected data release for both the PPI and CPI shows inflation expectations coming in lower than expected. The positive news was somewhat mitigated by the hawkish FOMC rate decision that also took place during the same week. Still, there is more optimism given that the data releases in the past 30 days have shown signs of inflation coming under control. At the very least, it suggests that the Federal Reserve's policy to keep inflation under control has been effective. As a result, lending partners have quickly cut rates again after the meeting this week. Consumer Price Index…

With the CPI and PPI reports coming up this week, the previous week was light on reports of any significance. Most notable was the Non-Farm Payrolls which can have an outsized impact on inflation data reporting, as it’s a useful barometer to compare the cost of goods to the payroll of the average consumer. Following that is the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in slightly under expectations. Lastly, the JOLTS Job Openings is a minor indicator, but useful for seeing the state of the job market. Non-Farm Payrolls Wages are growing by about 4%. The Federal Reserve wants to see…

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data, the PCE Index, was the highlight of this week. These were followed up loosely by trade balance, retail inventories, and GDP — all of which are strong secondary indicators for current inflation. For lending partners and those affiliated with broader markets, inflation is the key determining factor for rate adjustments, and other data at this point has a nominal impact in comparison. It does appear the Federal Reserve wants to have a strong hand towards inflation and will be careful about cutting rates even this year.  The broader market is holding such expectations as…

The Consumer Sentiment Report was the sole important report to take place the prior week, keeping with the trend of the cooling-off period that happens the weeks following the CPI and PPI data releases. Consumer sentiment this time around has come to be slightly below expectations and falling to a 6-month low, marking a great change in overall sentiment towards the clear trend in rising costs in goods and services. It is largely expected that the Federal Reserve, even with the recent improvement in data, will maintain its stance at holding rates at the current position until a later date…

The prior week showed a surprising display of inflation,  in that for consumers, it was less than expected. This is giving way to some optimism that inflation is on the right track to being under control. On the other end of the spectrum, for producers, inflation had shown to be slightly higher than expected. But the far higher impact of the two reports is the Consumer Price Index.  The Federal Reserve had still stuck to their stance as from the last FOMC opting to withhold any rate reduction decisions until late in the year, but the data coming in largely…